大越期货沪铜早报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The basis shows a slight premium, inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day moving average with a downward - sloping 20 - day moving average, and the main positions are net long with an increase in long positions. Considering factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Neutral, with smelting production cuts and relaxed scrap copper policies, and a decline in July's manufacturing PMI [2]. - Basis: Neutral, with a spot price of 78,685 and a basis of 45, showing a premium over futures [2]. - Inventory: Neutral, with an increase of 1,200 tons in copper inventory on August 20th to 156,350 tons, and an increase of 4,428 tons in SHFE copper inventory from the previous week to 86,361 tons [2]. - Market Trend: Bearish, with the closing price below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average moving downward [2]. - Main Positions: Bullish, with net long main positions and an increase in long positions [2]. - Expectation: Copper prices will fluctuate and adjust due to factors like the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak off - season consumption [2]. 2.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Influencing Factors: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are mentioned, but specific impacts are not detailed [3]. 2.3 Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons from the previous week to 86,361 tons on August 20th [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 2.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 2.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [20][22].