大越期货玻璃早报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The glass industry has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with a wide - range oscillatory operation in general [2][5]. - Although the glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and the glass factory inventory has decreased due to downstream phased restocking, the sustainability of the inventory reduction is questionable [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Glass production profit has recovered, the cold - repair speed of the industry has slowed down, the start - up rate and output have dropped to the historic low levels in the same period. Deep - processing orders are less than those in previous years, and the terminal demand is weak [2]. - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1162 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 82 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][41]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - Expectation: Due to the weak fundamentals of glass, it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [2]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - Negative Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1196 yuan/ton to 1162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.84%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board decreased from 1084 yuan/ton to 1080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. The main basis decreased from - 112 yuan/ton to - 82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.79% [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark location, is 1080 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content about the cost - side analysis is available other than mentioning glass production profit. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.34%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [21]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 463,400 tons [27]. - The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [4]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.55% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][41]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, exports, imports, apparent supply, consumption, differences, production growth rates, consumption growth rates, and net import ratios [42].