棉花早报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has significant differences in views on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for cotton will be prosperous. The 14,000 mark is crucial. If it holds above, there is upward momentum; if it falls below, there is further downside potential [5]. - The overall assessment of the cotton market is neutral, with both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include reduced previous Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventories year - on - year, while bearish factors include postponed trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [4][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The previous day, Zhengzhou cotton quickly broke below the 14,000 mark and then recovered. There are large differences in views among the long and short sides on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's August 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,240 yuan, with a basis of 1,185 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main trend is bullish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No specific content for "Today's Focus" is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In August, the global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%); the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrowing year - on - year fluctuation [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture's China Cotton Forecast: In the 2025/26 period, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The domestic average price of 3128B cotton is expected to be 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be 75 - 100 cents per pound [15]. 3.5 Position Data No specific content for "Position Data" is provided in the report.