沪锌期货早报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions adding, with the long side adding slightly more. Overall, it was a volume - driven rebound. The price rebound attracted active long - side entry, while the short side continued to suppress. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Technically, the price closed above the 60 - day moving average with weak support from the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ declined and operated in the weak area; the trend indicator rose, with the long - side strength increasing and the short - side strength decreasing, and the dominance of the short - side narrowing. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2510 will fluctuate and consolidate [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, the global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, and the consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, the global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, and the consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. In April, the global zinc plate production was 1.0722 million tons. From January to April, the global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, which is bullish [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,220, and the basis was - 45, which is neutral [2]. Inventory Analysis - On August 20, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 tons to 71,250 tons compared with the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 250 tons to 32,288 tons compared with the previous day, which is bullish [2]. Futures Market Quotes - On August 20, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange totaled 182,089 lots, with a turnover of 2.02252885 billion yuan, and the open interest was 216,150 lots, an increase of 1,549 lots [3]. Spot Market Quotes - On August 20, the prices of zinc concentrates, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide in the domestic main spot markets all showed a downward trend, except for zinc oxide and secondary zinc oxide, which remained unchanged [4]. Social Inventory of Zinc Ingots - From August 7 to August 18, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets increased from 91,300 tons to 115,000 tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On August 20, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 32,288 tons, a decrease of 250 tons compared with the previous day [6]. LME Zinc Inventory - On August 20, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 950 tons to 71,250 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 38.81% [8]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On August 20, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some areas with a 50% grade, the average processing fee was 3800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate (48% grade) had an average processing fee of 75 US dollars/kiloton [17]. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2510 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 20, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guoxin Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan [19].