建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250821

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] Core Viewpoints - The egg price dropped significantly in early August, and the start of the peak - season spot market was late this year. The market pressure emerged in late July, and the cold - storage egg release hit the market. The current supply pressure is high, with a larger - than - usual price correction. The near - month futures contracts are under pressure, and the overall sentiment in the futures market is extremely low. The short - term trend of near - month contracts is likely to be bearish, and there are risks in taking long positions. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter if the low egg price affects subsequent replenishment [8] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Contract | Pre - settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Egg 2509 | 3023 | 2974 | 3058 | 2961 | 3000 | - 23 | - 0.76% | 107462 | 81127 | - 10672 | | Egg 2510 | 3083 | 3050 | 3109 | 3045 | 3072 | - 11 | - 0.36% | 512726 | 408484 | - 2556 | | Egg 2511 | 3174 | 3143 | 3184 | 3110 | 3136 | - 38 | - 1.20% | 111117 | 156878 | 13795 | - The average price in the main production areas was 3.27 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.45 yuan/jin, also down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day. The 09 contract fell 0.76% [7] Operation Suggestions - The near - month contracts are likely to be bearish in the long - run. Taking long positions in bands may face high risks. A fundamental inflection point may appear in the later part of the fourth quarter if the low egg price is reflected in subsequent replenishment data [8] Industry News Laying Hens Inventory - The inventory of laying hens is on an upward trend. As of the end of July, the monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.356 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [9] Chick Hatchlings - In July, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was about 39.98 million, less than that in June and the same period in 2024. The replenishment volume in July decreased year - on - year for the first time this year [9] Hen Culling - In the three weeks up to August 14, the national hen culling volume showed a downward trend, and the current absolute value is close to the level of the previous three years. As of August 14, the average culling age was 506 days, unchanged from the previous week and one day later than last month [10] Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - chicken farming profit, egg 09 contract basis, egg 09 - 10 spread, average price in the main egg production areas, and egg 09 seasonal trend [12][13][16]