贵金属日评-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire prospect of the Russia - Ukraine war weakens the safe - haven demand for precious metals, while the market expects that Fed Chairman Powell may not give a clear guidance on the second - stage interest rate cut at the Jackson - Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The US dollar index rebounds, and London gold and silver prices decline. However, Trump's 2.0 new policy boosts the safe - haven demand for gold. Gold's medium - term upward trend remains good, and it is expected to fluctuate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce before rising again [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade currency system and the expectation of central bank interest rate cuts support the long - and medium - term bull market of gold. But high price - to - earnings ratios also increase gold price volatility. In the short term, London gold will continue to consolidate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices in the medium and short term. Investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - to - low positions [5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Quotes and Outlook - Intraday Quotes: The cease - fire prospect of the Russia - Ukraine war and the expected unclear guidance from Fed Chairman Powell lead to a rebound in the US dollar index. London gold falls to around $3320 per ounce, and silver to around $37.2 per ounce. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policy. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Quotes: Shanghai Gold Index closes at 774.49, down 0.32%; Shanghai Silver Index closes at 9063, down 1.55%; Gold T + D closes at 769.69, down 0.35%; Silver T + D closes at 9019, down 1.79% [5]. - Medium - term Quotes: Since late April, London gold has been fluctuating between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. The restructuring of the international trade currency system and central bank interest rate cut expectations support the gold bull market. It is expected that London gold will continue to fluctuate in the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce in the short term. Central bank easing expectations may support silver prices in the medium and short term. Investors are advised to take a long - position approach with medium - to - low positions [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices to Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11][16]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russia - Ukraine War: US President Trump says that Putin and Zelensky are arranging a meeting to end the war. The UK government says European leaders are considering new sanctions on Putin. Trump also says the US won't send ground troops to Ukraine but may provide air support [17]. - Credit Rating: S&P Global confirms the US credit rating as AA +, stating that the revenue from Trump's tariffs will offset the fiscal impact of tax cuts and spending bills [17]. - Tariff Adjustment: The US will increase tariffs on more than 400 steel and aluminum derivative products, with a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum components in 407 product categories [18].