建信期货豆粕日报-20250821

Report Information - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The 8 - month USDA supply - demand balance report for US soybeans in 2025/26 is unexpectedly bullish. Assuming the area estimate is reasonable, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. With good weather, the room for further increase in yield per unit is shrinking, and most of the weather - related bearish factors have been digested. Although China may stop purchasing new - season US soybeans, US export demand may not decline significantly. New - season US soybeans will only be slightly loose, and the CBOT soybean low may have appeared, with future trends expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [6]. - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the external market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the high - tariff policy on Canadian rapeseed products are bullish for soybean meal. Although China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans, the import cost may increase, so soybean meal is expected to remain bullish in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3167, the opening price was 3158, the highest price was 3164, the lowest price was 3131, the closing price was 3160, with a decrease of 7 and a decline rate of 0.22%. The trading volume was 1,059,141, the open interest was 2,098,746, and the open interest decreased by 9,162 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3115, the opening price was 3105, the highest price was 3117, the lowest price was 3080, the closing price was 3116, with an increase of 1 and an increase rate of 0.03%. The trading volume was 205,158, the open interest was 313,228, and the open interest decreased by 76,626 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3149, the opening price was 3141, the highest price was 3147, the lowest price was 3108, the closing price was 3143, with a decrease of 6 and a decline rate of 0.19%. The trading volume was 147,959, the open interest was 573,773, and the open interest decreased by 19,396 [6]. - The US soybean futures contract on the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1035 cents. The USDA's August supply - demand balance report showed that the estimated harvested area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the yield per unit was expected to be 53.6 bushels per acre (market expectation: 52.9 bushels per acre), and the production was expected to be 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels). The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season in August was 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels) [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Consider the CBOT soybean to have reached its low point, with future trends expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. Domestically, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish in the medium term [6]. 2. Industry News - Not provided 3. Data Overview - Pro Farmer's Forecast: In 2025, the average number of soybean pods per 3x3 square - foot area in Ohio is expected to be 1,287.28 (2024: 1,229.93, three - year average: 1,204.83). In South Dakota, it is expected to be 1,188.45 (2024: 1,025.89, three - year average: 970.10) [11]. - USDA Pressing Weekly Report: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than the $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was $287.98 per short ton (equivalent to $6.70 per bushel). The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound (equivalent to $6.31 per bushel). The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.32 per bushel (last week: $9.98 per bushel) [11].