工业硅期货早报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support has risen, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 8195 - 8585 for the 2511 contract [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule will increase in the short - term and is expected to decline in the medium - term. The overall demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 50370 - 53380 for the 2511 contract [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a 3.57% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase compared to the previous week, and the demand has increased, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: The inventory is 242,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory is 54,300 tons, at a low level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 49,400 tons [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - passing 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 2939 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the flood season [6]. - Market indicators: The spot price in East China is 9050 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract is 660 yuan/ton, the social inventory is 545,000 tons, the sample enterprise inventory is 171,150 tons, the main port inventory is 117,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes below the MA20, and the main position is net short [6][17]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,300 tons, a 0.34% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for August is predicted to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.1GW, a 0.66% increase compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 198,000 tons, a 3.61% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The battery cell and component production also have different trends in output, inventory, and profit [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 35,850 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 10,150 yuan/ton [9]. - Market indicators: The basis of the 11 - contract is - 4875 yuan/ton, the weekly inventory is 242,000 tons, the 11 - contract futures price closes above the MA20, and the main position is net long [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts have declined to different extents, with the decline rate ranging from 2.56% to 3.75%. The spot prices of different types of silicon in East China have also decreased, with the decline rate between 0.49% and 1.63% [17]. - The inventory of different regions and enterprises has different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing. The production and capacity utilization rate of different regions also show different changes [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different models are mostly stable. The inventory, output, and export of polysilicon - related products have different degrees of change [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Show the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China [21]. - Inventory: Include the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in delivery warehouses, ports, sample enterprises, and registered warehouse receipts [25]. - Production and Capacity Utilization Rate: Present the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization rate, and production of different specifications [28][29][30]. - Cost - Sample Region Trends: Show the historical trends of cost and profit for industrial silicon production in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [35]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: Illustrate the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance situations of industrial silicon and polysilicon [36][39][62]. - Downstream Trends - Organosilicon: Involve the price, production, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [42][44][48]. - Aluminum Alloy: Include the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the automotive and wheel hub sectors [51][54][56]. - Polysilicon - Related: Cover the cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [59][65][68][71][74][77][78].