降息预期高涨，金银高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Recent major events have limited impact, with geopolitical and trade factors having little effect, and the full - fledged interest rate cut expectation may have limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence status at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting [48]. - Domestic commodities and the stock market are strong, pushing up the prices of gold and silver. With the marginal weakening of China's economic data in July, the expectation of policy intensification has risen again [48]. - Global central bank gold purchases have declined, with limited supportive effect [48]. - The pattern of silver being stronger than gold is hard to change for now. If the Fed restarts the interest rate cut cycle, it may change [48]. - Gold and silver prices are waiting for new driving factors. The current support from interest rate cut expectations, inflation expectations, and the US debt crisis remains unchanged, and the prices will likely continue to fluctuate [48]. - The Russia - Ukraine peace talks may make progress, but Trump's remarks add uncertainty. If a permanent cease - fire agreement is reached, gold and silver prices may decline [48]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The report presents multiple charts on gold and silver price - related data, including the spread between Shanghai gold 12 - 6 and Shanghai silver 12 - 6, the US dollar index, the US - China exchange rate, the US 10 - year Treasury yield, the inflation expectation, the spot ratio of London and Shanghai gold and silver, and the performance of major global stock indices and gold and silver spot prices [14][17][20][22]. 3.2 Logical Analysis - Multiple factors influence gold and silver prices. Domestic "anti - involution" policies have led to the explosion of domestic commodity sectors, with silver prices being affected by the photovoltaic industry, resulting in a situation where silver is stronger than gold. Trade disputes have less market attention, and the weakening trend of US dollar assets has been broken. The significant increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and the Fed's political pressure drive up gold and silver prices. The market expects two interest rate cuts this year, and the focus is on the Fed's independence. The global economy cooled in July, and any cooling of US economic data will boost the interest rate cut expectation. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown in some aspects, with a differentiation between domestic and external demand [25]. - The probability of an interest rate cut in September is 84.7%. The probability distribution of different target interest rate ranges at different time points is provided, and the number of expected interest rate cuts has changed over time, decreasing to 2 times on May 18 and July 22, remaining at 2 times on August 15, and increasing to 3 times after July 1 [28][31][32][34][35]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - A large amount of US macro - economic data from January 2024 to August 2025 is presented, covering GDP, foreign trade, economic sentiment indices, industrial, real estate, public and private sectors, employment, and inflation data [27]. 3.4 Position Data - For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 0.03% compared to the previous day, the short - position volume decreased by 0.06%, and the net position increased by 0.07%. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on August 15, 2025, the long - position volume decreased by 3.82%, the short - position volume decreased by 3.22%, and the net position decreased by 9.92% [38][41]. - Gold ETF positions increased fluctuantly, while silver ETF positions decreased fluctuantly, and the prices of both were in a fluctuating state. Shanghai gold inventory continued to increase, with the basis in July 1 - 2 yuan/gram higher than the same period. Arbitrage trading pushed up the inventory. COMEX gold inventory fluctuated and remained at the highest level in the past 5 years. Shanghai silver inventory decreased and was higher than the same period last year, while COMEX silver inventory remained at an absolute high [42][45][46]. 3.5 Summary - The impact of major events on gold and silver prices is limited. The interest rate cut expectation has limited driving force. The market focuses on the Fed's independence. Domestic economic policies and the performance of the commodity and stock markets affect gold and silver prices. The support from central bank gold purchases is limited. The pattern of silver being stronger than gold may change with the Fed's interest rate cut cycle. Gold and silver prices will likely continue to fluctuate, and the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks adds uncertainty to gold and silver prices [48].