建信期货原油日报-20250821

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: WTI's opening price was $62.58, closing at $62.00, with a high of $62.68, a low of $61.65, a decline of 1.12%, and a trading volume of 25.75 million lots. Brent opened at $65.98, closed at $65.42, reached a high of $66.01, a low of $65.14, dropped by 0.89%, and had a trading volume of 20.06 million lots. SC's opening price was 482.2 yuan/barrel, closing at 482.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 484.7 yuan/barrel, a low of 479 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.47%, and a trading volume of 11.46 million lots [6]. - Market Trend: The US is arranging a summit among the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine, and overnight oil prices continued to fall. Although the meeting between the US and Russian leaders did not yield substantial results, Trump said the talks were "very smooth," and the US will not impose further sanctions on Russia for now. The relationship between the two countries has improved, and oil prices continued their weak performance [6]. - Fundamentals: As of the week ending on the 8th, US gasoline consumption rebounded. After five consecutive weeks of consumption below the same period in 2024, the growth rate barely turned positive. Consumption was still weak despite lower gasoline prices, and this year's peak - season travel consumption in the US was lower than expected. The actual performance of refined - oil consumption was not optimistic. With the peak travel season coming to an end, demand support was limited [7]. - Overall Outlook: This year's peak - season consumption in the US showed no significant improvement, and oil prices were mainly bearish. In the short term, oil prices were bottoming out, and in the medium term, they might decline again under inventory pressure [7]. Group 3: Industry News - Angola plans to cut its oil exports to 994,000 barrels per day in October [8]. - The US Treasury Secretary plans to raise tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [8]. - In July, India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased. Partly because Reliance Industries, the world's largest refinery operator, reduced its purchases by 19% from the previous month's high. Between August and September, Indian state - owned refineries will seek alternative oil sources from the Middle East or the US to replace Russian oil. However, sources said that due to the increased discount of Russian oil, Indian state - owned refineries have placed orders for Russian oil. The Russian embassy in India said the discount for Russian oil to India is about 5%, and Russian oil is highly competitive with no current substitutes. India's oil imports will remain at a similar level [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Brent, and Oman, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories, with data sources including Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, and EIA [10][12][20][23]