建信期货油脂日报-20250821

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Domestic three major oils reduced positions and declined, with some seats taking profits. Technically, there is a short - term adjustment need, so be cautious about chasing high [8]. - Palm oil is expected to maintain a high - level shock consolidation trend. Although the export growth rate has narrowed and production is seasonally increasing with expected inventory growth in August - September, Indian import demand may rebound in August [8]. - Due to domestic tariff policies, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of going long remains until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired [8]. - For soybean oil, the short - term inventory is high and the supply is abundant, but it is bullish in the long - term due to biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, possible reduction in soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and warming domestic demand [8]. - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to overweight rapeseed oil and underweight soybean oil [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: In the East China market, the basis price of rapeseed oil and soybean oil has different performance in different months. For example, the basis of East China third - grade rapeseed oil in August is OI2601 + 130, and the basis of one - grade soybean oil in the spot market is 01 + 170 [7]. - Operation Suggestions: For palm oil, expect high - level shock consolidation; for rapeseed oil, maintain the long - buying logic; for soybean oil, be bullish in the long - term; and in arbitrage, overweight rapeseed oil and underweight soybean oil [8]. 2. Industry News - Independent inspection agency AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from July 1 - 20 [9]. - Shipping survey agency ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were 724,191 tons, a 16.5% increase from July 1 - 15, with exports to China decreasing by 28,300 tons compared to the same period last month [9]. - AmSpec data also shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 were 696,425 tons, a 21.3% increase from July 1 - 15 [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China third - grade rapeseed oil, East China fourth - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, and the basis changes and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit [11][17][26]