大越期货沥青期货早报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are bearish due to high supply pressure and weak demand recovery. The cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term, and the futures price is predicted to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2510 contract is expected to oscillate between 3432 - 3476 [7][9] - Bullish factors include relatively high - level crude oil costs providing some support [12] - Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, and increasing expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13] - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In August 2025, the planned domestic asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% month - on - month decrease and a 17.1% year - on - year increase. The sample capacity utilization rate this week is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase month - on - month, and the device maintenance volume is estimated at 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease month - on - month. The refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but the supply pressure may decrease next week [7] - Demand Side: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the building asphalt开工率 is 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase month - on - month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7] - Cost Side: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase month - on - month. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increases, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increases. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8] - Other Aspects: On August 20, the Shandong spot price is 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract is 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory is 1.343 million tons, a 1.75% decrease month - on - month; the in - factory inventory is 711,000 tons, a 4.71% increase month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 190,000 tons, a 24.00% decrease month - on - month. The MA20 is downward, and the 10 - contract futures price closes below the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increase [10] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the previous day's market overview data, including the values, previous values, and percentage changes of various contracts (such as 01 - 12 contracts), inventory (weekly inventory of social, factory, and port diluted asphalt), production, output, and profit - related indicators [17] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [19][20] - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends of the main contracts (1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32] 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - The report presents the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [35][36] 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It shows the historical trends of asphalt profit and the profit - spread trend between coking and asphalt [37][40] - Supply - Side Analysis: It includes the weekly shipment volume, domestic diluted asphalt port inventory, weekly and monthly production, the price of Venezuelan Ma Rui crude oil and its monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, weekly开工率, maintenance loss volume estimation, etc. [43][45][48][52][55][58][60] - Inventory Analysis: It covers the exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, in - factory inventory, in - factory inventory inventory ratio, etc. [63][67][71] - Import - Export Analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79] - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion amount year - on - year), downstream mechanical demand (asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, roller sales), asphalt开工率 (heavy - traffic asphalt, classified by use), and downstream开工情况 (shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][83][86][90][95][98][101] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from August 2025 to September 2024, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production [106][107]