大越期货PVC期货早报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply - side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - Demand - side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous period, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - Cost - side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,641.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8]. - Overall Outlook: The cost of calcium carbide method is strengthening, the cost of ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is strengthening. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,958 - 5,058 [9]. - Leveraging Factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [12]. - Restraining Factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. - Main Logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market Overview - Price Changes: Various PVC - related prices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,930 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20%. The price of some contracts also had corresponding changes [15]. - Inventory Changes: Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Ethylene factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%. Social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57% [10][15]. - Operating Rate Changes: The overall downstream operating rate and the operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) had different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [8][15]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Base - price Trend: On August 20, the base price of the 01 contract was - 78 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [10]. - Difference Analysis: The differences between different contracts (such as 1 - 9, 5 - 9) showed different trends over time [24]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: - Lancoke: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output of Lancoke showed different trends over different time periods [27]. - Calcium Carbide: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide also had different trends [29]. - Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt: The prices and production volumes of liquid chlorine and raw salt changed over time [31]. - Caustic Soda: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda showed different trends [33][36]. - PVC Supply Trend: The capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production had different trends over time [37][39][41]. - Demand Trend: The sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC showed different trends over time. The investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion areas in the real estate market also had an impact on PVC demand. Additionally, social financing scale increments, M2 increments, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment growth rates were also analyzed [43][45][47][52][54]. - Inventory Situation: The exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises showed different trends over time [57]. - Ethylene Method - Related: The import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, price differences of ethylene method FOB and vinyl chloride import showed different trends over time [59]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import of PVC in different months of 2024 and 2025 were presented [62].