Workflow
建信期货铜期货日报-20250821
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-08-21 02:19
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are oscillating weakly, with the main contract closing at 78,640. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on Friday night, the US dollar index is oscillating, and market sentiment is cautious. Spot prices dropped 330 to 78,770, and the spot premium fell 5 to 190. The spot import window remains open, with a profit of 350 yuan/ton due to the increase in the Shanghai-London ratio to 8.12 and the expansion of the LME 0 - 3 contango structure to $96.85/ton. The demand for Yangshan copper has improved, and both the warehouse receipt and bill of lading premiums have risen. Short - term demand is in the transition between the off - season and peak season, and with low inventories both at home and abroad, the fundamentals still support copper prices. The short - term support level is 78,000, but market caution persists before important events, and there is a lack of obvious positive factors, so copper prices are expected to continue to oscillate within a narrow range [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices are oscillating weakly, and the main contract closed at 78,640. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting, the US dollar index is oscillating, and market sentiment is cautious. Spot prices dropped 330, and the spot premium fell 5. The spot import window is open with a profit of 350 yuan/ton. The demand for Yangshan copper has improved, and subsequent imports of copper are expected to increase. Short - term demand is in the transition period, and fundamentals support copper prices. The short - term support level is 78,000, and copper prices are expected to oscillate narrowly [10] 3.2 Industry News - In July 2025, China's copper strip exports were 10,531.17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.84% and a year - on - year increase of 0.17%. From January to July, the cumulative export of copper strips was 71,070 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.12% [11] - In July 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports continued to grow, covering 142 countries and regions, with a total export volume up 25.45% year - on - year. Exports to India and Turkey increased by 450% and 290% year - on - year respectively. Exports to the US decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and are expected to decline significantly in the future due to US tariffs on copper semi - finished products [11] - In July 2025, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a month - on - month increase of 22.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import of anode copper was 466,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72% [11]