大越期货燃料油早报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Singapore's high - sulfur fuel oil has a supply surplus in floating and fixed storage, and the surplus is expected to continue. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level. FU2510 will operate in the range of 2690 - 2740, and LU2511 will operate in the range of 3430 - 3480 [3]. - The market risk sentiment has subsided, and the fuel oil is expected to follow the low - level oscillation of crude oil. The行情 is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [3][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental situation of fuel oil shows a mix of signals. The supply is in surplus, the inventory has increased, the price is below the 20 - day line, and the high - sulfur main position is short - biased while the low - sulfur is long - biased. The fuel oil is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - The previous day's closing prices of FU and LU futures, their price changes, and the changes in basis are presented. The FU futures price increased by 0.78%, and the LU futures price decreased by 0.17%. The basis of FU decreased by 33.45%, and that of LU increased by 16.04% [5]. - The previous and current prices of various fuel oil spot products in different regions, along with their price changes and amplitudes, are provided. For example, the price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased by 1.11% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia. Bearish factors are that the optimism on the demand side remains to be verified and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on August 13 was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels compared to the previous period, which is a bearish signal [3][8]. - The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 125 yuan/ton, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil is 94 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The inventory data of Singapore fuel oil from June 4 to August 13 shows fluctuations, with an overall increase in the latest period [8]. 5. Spread Data There is no specific spread data analysis in the text, only a graph of the high - low sulfur futures spread is mentioned [12].