原油成品油早报-20250821

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The inflection point of the fundamentals has emerged, and the market is concerned about the cease - fire negotiation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US tariff measures on India. After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the risk rating of the sanctions policy has decreased. The short - term crude oil absolute price is expected to remain volatile, and the crude oil is expected to weaken in the second half of the year under the pattern of supply - demand surplus [5]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Oil Price Data - From August 14 to August 20, 2025, WTI crude oil price changed by $0.36, BRENT by $1.05, DUBAI by $0.48. Other related oil products also had corresponding price changes, such as NYMEX RB changing by $3.93, OMAN by $1.88 [3]. 2. Daily News - Driven by Asian demand, US crude oil exports are expected to rebound from the summer slump, with exports in August and September expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day [3]. - Russia expects India to continue buying Russian oil despite US tariff threats. As of mid - 2025, India imported about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day from Russia, accounting for nearly 37% of its overseas purchases [4]. 3. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report shows that in the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41% [4]. - From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries in China increased slightly. Refinery output of gasoline and diesel increased, and inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries declined, while that of local refineries increased [5]. 4. Weekly Views - This week, oil prices fluctuated. The short - term crude oil absolute price is expected to remain volatile, and the crude oil is expected to weaken in the second half of the year under the pattern of supply - demand surplus. Attention should be paid to Russian crude oil supply and whether India resumes purchasing Russian oil in the spot market next week [5].