大越期货原油早报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overnight, US EIA crude oil and gasoline inventories both decreased more than expected, which boosted short - term crude oil demand and led to a stable recovery in prices. Geopolitically, according to Russian sources, India has not largely abandoned Russian oil, and the Russia - Ukraine war negotiations are ongoing with no significant progress. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with prices in the range of 483 - 493, and long - term investors are advised to hold long positions [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral as Russia expects to continue supplying oil to India despite US warnings, US inventories show a mixed picture, and Fed officials are concerned about inflation. The basis is bullish with spot prices at par with futures. Inventory data is bullish as US API and EIA crude inventories decreased more than expected. The disk is bearish with the 20 - day moving average downward and prices below it. The main positions are bearish as both WTI and Brent crude main positions' long positions decreased. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in the 483 - 493 range, and long - term investors should hold long positions [3]. 2. Recent News - At the July Fed monetary policy meeting, most officials emphasized that inflation risks outweighed concerns about the labor market. Two high - level officials opposed maintaining interest rates and hoped to cut rates due to concerns about the labor market. However, subsequent data on core consumer inflation and producer prices provided evidence for those opposing rapid rate cuts. Also, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the EU plans to prepare a new round of sanctions against Russia in September. There are discussions about a possible meeting between Putin and Zelensky, but Russia has not confirmed Putin's participation [5]. 3. Multi - Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: A potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict; continuous tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariff issues is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, and Oman crude increased by 1.60%, 1.52%, and 0.94% respectively, while SC crude decreased by 0.64% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of various types of crude oil such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., all increased, with Oman crude rising by 1.12% [9]. - Inventory Data: US API crude inventory as of August 15 decreased by 241.7 million barrels, and EIA inventory decreased by 601.4 million barrels, both more than expected. Cushing area inventory increased by 41.9 million barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 476.7 million barrels [3]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 25,087 [15]. - Brent Crude: As of August 12, the net long position decreased by 34,430 [17].