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广发早知道:汇总版-20250821
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:20
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a trend of opening low and rising high, with semiconductor stocks performing strongly. However, the four major stock index futures contracts declined, and it is expected that the market will enter a high - level shock to wait for the decision of the direction. [2][3][4] - The sentiment in the bond market is fragile, and the performance of treasury bond futures was weak in the afternoon, affected by the stock market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [5][6] - For precious metals, due to the divergence among Fed officials and political pressure on some officials, investors' concerns have reignited, and precious metals prices rebounded. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [8][9][10] - The container shipping futures are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are mainly in a state of shock, affected by factors such as macro - economic data, supply and demand fundamentals, and inventory levels. [14][17][22] - The steel market maintains a shock pattern, with the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil showing differentiation. Iron ore and coking coal prices will follow the trend of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [41][43][46] - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, while the prices of live pigs are affected by factors such as consumption and the epidemic, and the corn market is under supply pressure and shows a weak trend. [54][56][61] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: The A - share market opened low and rose high, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04%. The four major stock index futures contracts declined, and the basis of the main contracts fluctuated neutrally. [2][3] - News: In July, China's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, and overseas news mainly involved the US's stance on Ukraine and the expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs. [3][4] - Funding: On August 20, the trading volume of A - shares decreased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. [4] - Operation Suggestion: It is recommended to buy put options to protect long positions or partially take profits on previous positions. [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most treasury bond futures contracts closed down, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. [5] - Funding: The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 49.75 billion yuan. The inter - bank liquidity became balanced in the afternoon. [5][6] - Operation Suggestion: Wait and see in the short - term and consider a curve - steepening strategy. [6] Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - News: The US and China had a good dialogue on economic and trade issues. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed internal differences, and there were political incidents involving Fed officials. [7][8] - Market Performance: Precious metals prices rebounded after a decline, with international gold rising 0.99% and international silver rising 1.41%. [9] - Outlook and Suggestion: There is still a demand for hedging in the market. It is recommended to use bull - spread strategies for gold and maintain a low - buying mindset for silver. [10][11] Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures - Spot Quotes: The spot quotes of major shipping companies are provided, and the container shipping index shows a decline in the European line index and an increase in the US - West line index. [12] - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US is at a certain level. [12] - Logic and Suggestion: The spot price is in a downward phase, which may put pressure on the futures price. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract. [13] Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: The average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the actual transaction was limited. [14] - Macro: The short - term trading focus is on the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the US inflation data affects the expectation. [14][17] - Supply: The TC of copper concentrates increased slightly, and the production of refined copper increased in July. It is expected to decrease slightly in August. [15] - Demand: The operating rate of copper rod processing showed a mixed trend, and the overall demand was resilient. [16] - Inventory: COMEX and domestic social inventories increased, while LME inventory decreased. [16] - Logic and Suggestion: The copper price is mainly in a range - bound state, with the main contract reference range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. [17] Aluminum Oxide - Spot: The spot price showed a north - south differentiation, with the north under pressure and the south supported. [17] - Supply: The production of metallurgical - grade aluminum oxide increased in July, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. [18] - Inventory: The port inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt registration increased. [18] - Logic and Suggestion: The market is in a state of slight surplus, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [19] Aluminum - Spot: The average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the premium increased. [20] - Supply: The production of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased. [20] - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly, but it is still in the off - season. [20] - Inventory: The domestic inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory remained unchanged. [21] - Logic and Suggestion: The aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. [22] Aluminum Alloy - Spot: The average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged. [23] - Supply: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased in July, and it is expected to remain stable in August. [23] - Demand: The demand was under pressure in July, and it is expected to improve marginally in late August. [23][24] - Inventory: The social inventory increased. [23] - Logic and Suggestion: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract reference range is 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. [24] Zinc - Spot: The average price of 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the market trading was general. [25] - Supply: The zinc ore supply is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increased in July. [26] - Demand: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the spot premium was weak. [27] - Inventory: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased. [28] - Logic and Suggestion: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [28] Tin - Spot: The price of 1 tin increased, and the market transaction was dull. [29] - Supply: The import of tin ore decreased in July, and the supply is difficult to improve in the short - term. [29] - Demand: The demand for solder decreased, and the overall demand is expected to be weak. [30] - Inventory: The LME inventory and social inventory decreased. [30] - Logic and Suggestion: The tin price is in a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [31] Nickel - Spot: The average price of electrolytic nickel decreased. [31] - Supply: The production of refined nickel was at a high level and is expected to increase slightly. [32] - Demand: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, while the demand for stainless steel and nickel sulfate was general. [32] - Inventory: The overseas inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory increased slightly. [32] - Logic and Suggestion: The nickel price is expected to adjust in a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. [33] Stainless Steel - Spot: The price of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased, and the basis increased. [34][35] - Raw Materials: The prices of nickel ore and ferro - nickel were stable, and the price of ferro - chrome was expected to be strong. [35][37] - Supply: The planned production of stainless steel in August is expected to increase. [35] - Inventory: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipt increased. [36] - Logic and Suggestion: The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate in a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. [37] Lithium Carbonate - Spot: The spot price of lithium carbonate remained unchanged, and the transaction improved after the price decline. [38] - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate increased in July and is expected to increase in August. [39] - Demand: The demand is expected to be optimistic, and the seasonal performance is weakened. [39] - Inventory: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week. [40] - Logic and Suggestion: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see and try to go long at low prices. [41] Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - Spot: The futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis strengthened. [41] - Cost and Profit: The cost support is expected to weaken, and the profit of steel products decreased. [42] - Supply: The production of iron and steel increased in August, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in August - September. [42] - Demand: The overall demand for steel increased year - on - year, but the demand for rebar decreased this period. [42] - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products increased this week. [43] - View: The steel market is expected to maintain a high - level shock, and it is recommended to wait and see. [43] Iron Ore - Spot: The prices of mainstream iron ore powders showed a mixed trend. [45] - Futures: The prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased. [45] - Basis: The basis of different iron ore varieties is provided. [45] - Demand: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. [45] - Supply: The global iron ore shipment increased, and the arrival volume decreased. [45] - Inventory: The port inventory increased slightly, and the steel mill inventory increased. [46] - View: The iron ore price is expected to follow the rebound of steel products, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. [46] Coking Coal - Futures and Spot: The coking coal futures price declined, and the prices of some coal types were loosened. [47] - Supply: The production capacity utilization rate of coal mines showed a mixed trend, and the inventory adjustment slowed down. [47][48] - Demand: The coking production increased slightly, and the downstream demand for replenishment weakened. [48][49] - Inventory: The overall inventory of coking coal decreased. [49] - View: It is recommended to buy at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [49] Coke - Futures and Spot: The coke futures price declined, and the sixth - round price increase was implemented, with the seventh - round initiated. [50][51] - Profit: The coking profit improved. [50] - Supply: The coking production increased slightly. [50] - Demand: The downstream demand for coke remained resilient, and the pig iron output is expected to decline slightly in August. [51] - Inventory: The overall inventory of coke decreased. [51] - View: It is recommended to buy at low prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 long - spread arbitrage. [51][53] Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - Spot Market: The prices of soybean meal were stable to weak, and the prices of rapeseed meal decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [54] - Fundamentals: There were export sales reports of US soybeans, and the export volume forecasts of Brazilian soybeans and soybean meal increased. [54][55] - Market Outlook: The long - term outlook for meal products is positive, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. [55][56] Live Pigs - Spot Situation: The spot price of live pigs fluctuated, and the market sentiment improved. [57] - Market Data: The profit of live pig breeding showed a mixed trend, and the average slaughter weight increased. [57][58] - Market Outlook: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty in the far - end market. [59] Corn - Spot Price: The spot price of corn was generally weak, and the trading was light. [60] - Fundamentals: The inventories of corn in Guangdong Port and northern four ports decreased. [60][61] - Market Outlook: The corn market is under supply pressure and is expected to be weakly volatile. [61]