《有色》日报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - In the short - term, copper pricing returns to macro trading. With weak economic expectations, the upside of copper prices is under pressure, but the downside space is also difficult to open. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The key lies in the inflation and employment data in the US in August, which will determine the Fed's decision in the September interest - rate meeting [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the market will remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week. It is recommended to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, short - term prices are still under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price reference of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and focus on the 21,000 pressure level [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand weakness pattern of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the price mainly fluctuating narrowly, and the main contract referring to 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - In the short - term, the driving force for zinc prices is weak, and they are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - In the short - term, the driving force for tin prices is limited, and they will fluctuate widely. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [9]. Nickel - The short - term nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - In the short - term, the stainless - steel price will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract operating between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policy trends and ferronickel dynamics [11]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short - term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with strong support likely between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,770 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous value [1]. - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 0.34% from the previous value [3]. - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remains unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton [4]. - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous value [6]. - SMM 1 tin price is 267,500 yuan/ton, up 0.49% from the previous value [9]. - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 0.62% from the previous value [10]. - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) stainless steel price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value [11]. - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 85,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [12]. Fundamental Data Copper - July electrolytic copper production is 1174.3 thousand tons, up 3.47% month - on - month [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports are 296.9 thousand tons, down 1.20% from the previous month [1]. Aluminum - July alumina production is 7.6502 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month [3]. - July electrolytic aluminum production is 3.7214 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 625 thousand tons, up 1.63% month - on - month [4]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 266 thousand tons, up 4.31% month - on - month [4]. Zinc - July refined zinc production is 602.8 thousand tons, up 3.03% month - on - month [6]. - July refined zinc imports are 17.9 thousand tons, down 50.35% from the previous month [6]. Tin - July tin ore imports are 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month [9]. - July SMM refined tin production is 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production in a certain period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month [10]. - Refined nickel imports in a certain period are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% from the previous period [10]. Stainless Steel - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in a certain period is 1.7133 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month [11]. - Stainless steel imports in a certain period are 109.5 thousand tons, down 12.48% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate - July lithium carbonate production is 93,958 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month [12]. - July lithium carbonate demand is 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [12].