《特殊商品》日报-20250821

Report on Natural Rubber Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The current market lacks clear directional guidance, with long and short forces intertwined, and prices will mainly fluctuate within a range. The reference range for the 01 contract is 15,000 - 16,500. Follow - up attention should be paid to the raw material supply situation during the peak production period in the main producing areas. If the raw material supply goes smoothly, consider shorting at high prices [1]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On August 20, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 1.68% from the previous day; the whole milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 1075, down 4.88%. Other raw material prices also showed different degrees of decline or stability [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was - 955, up 4.02% from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 105, down 23.53%; the 5 - 9 spread was 1060, down 1.85% [1]. - Fundamental Data: In June, the production in Thailand, India, and China increased, while that in Indonesia decreased. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased, while that of all - steel tires increased. In July, domestic tire production decreased, and export volume increased. The import volume of natural rubber in June and July increased [1]. - Inventory Change: Bonded area inventory decreased by 1.89%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE increased by 10.02% [1]. Report on Polysilicon Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was relatively large, still facing the pressure of inventory accumulation. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton, and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips and buying put options to short when the price is high and volatility is low [4]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: The average prices of N - type re - feed material, N - type granular silicon, and other products remained unchanged on August 20 compared with the previous day, while the N - type material basis increased by 7.32% [4]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: The main contract price was 51,875, down 0.74% from the previous day. Different monthly spreads showed different degrees of increase or decrease [4]. - Fundamental Data: Weekly polysilicon production decreased slightly, and monthly production increased. Monthly import volume increased, export volume decreased, and net export volume decreased. Weekly and monthly silicon wafer production showed different trends, and import and export volumes decreased [4]. - Inventory Change: Polysilicon inventory, silicon wafer inventory, and polysilicon warehouse receipts all increased [4]. Report on Glass and Soda Ash Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The overall atmosphere in the industrial product futures market has weakened. After the previous macro - boost and related news disturbances ended, soda ash has returned to its fundamental logic and is operating weakly. Glass has been in a continuous weak operation. Short positions can be held for both [5]. Summary by Directory - Price and Spread: Glass and soda ash prices in different regions remained stable or declined on August 20. The prices of glass 2505 and 2509 contracts decreased, and the prices of soda ash 2505 and 2509 contracts also decreased [5]. - Supply and Inventory: The weekly production of soda ash increased significantly, and inventory returned to the pattern of accumulation. The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged, and the inventory of glass and soda ash increased [5]. - Real Estate Data: The month - on - month data of new construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed different degrees of decline [5]. Report on Industrial Silicon Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The cost of industrial silicon will gradually rise in the future. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some production capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will be reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips. The main price fluctuation range is expected to be 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On August 20, the prices of different types of industrial silicon decreased, and the basis of some types increased [6]. - Monthly Spread: Different monthly spreads of industrial silicon showed different degrees of increase or decrease [6]. - Fundamental Data: National industrial silicon production increased, but production in Xinjiang decreased, while production in Yunnan and Sichuan increased. The national operating rate increased, with different trends in different regions. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased, while that of polysilicon and recycled aluminum alloy increased. Industrial silicon export volume increased [6]. - Inventory Change: The inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factories and social inventory showed different trends [6]. Report on Logs Investment Rating Not provided in the report. Core View The fundamentals of logs have a marginal improvement expectation, and the spot market is short - term strong. The demand is currently firm, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The futures price may oscillate in the range of 800 - 850. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level around 800 and mainly participate in buying on dips [8]. Summary by Directory - Futures and Spot Prices: On August 20, the prices of log futures contracts decreased slightly, and the prices of spot logs in different ports remained unchanged. The new round of foreign - market quotes remained unchanged [8]. - Supply: The port shipping volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased in July compared with June. The inventory in major ports in China decreased in the week ending August 15 [8]. - Demand: The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased slightly in the week ending August 15 [8].