《能源化工》日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda futures market strengthened, but the supply is expected to increase with more devices resuming and fewer maintenance plans. The rebound height is limited, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 2500 - 2700. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - PVC: The supply of PVC is under pressure due to new capacity releases, while the downstream demand shows no sign of improvement. The industry is in the off - season, and it is recommended to take a bearish view [2]. Crude Oil Industry - The overnight oil price rebounded, driven by short - term supply - demand factors such as a large drop in US EIA inventory and strong terminal demand. However, there is still short - term supply pressure due to the increase in Cushing inventory and OPEC + production. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, and consider expanding the 10 - 11/12 month spread on the inter - month side [5]. Methanol Industry - The methanol market has high port inventory due to large imports. The demand is differentiated, with traditional sectors weak and MTO profit improving. The 09 contract has significant inventory accumulation, while the 01 contract is supported by seasonal factors and Iranian gas - limit expectations [9][11][12]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: The short - term price has some support due to expected improvement in supply - demand and lower port arrivals in August, but the medium - term supply is sufficient, and the rebound drive is limited. - Styrene: The short - term supply is high, but the demand has improved with the increase in downstream 3S load and export expectations. The price has support at the low level, but the rebound space is limited [16]. Urea Industry - The urea price fluctuated, mainly driven by export sentiment and inventory pressure. The fundamentals have limited changes, with increased daily production and weak agricultural demand. The market is expected to be volatile [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply is expected to increase as some domestic PX plants restart. The short - term price has support, and it is recommended to trade it in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread [50]. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the medium - term is under pressure. It is recommended to trade it in the range of 4600 - 4800 and do reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [50]. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply and demand are neutral to positive in the short - term, and it is expected to be volatile and strong. It is recommended to trade the EG01 contract in the range of 4350 - 4550 [50]. - Short - fiber: The price has some support due to the approaching peak season, but the rebound drive is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure above 6500 for the PF10 contract [50]. - Bottle Chip: The processing fee has support, and the absolute price follows the cost. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at low levels [50]. Polyolefin Industry - The PP/PE market shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with inventory depletion. The supply pressure is easing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold the LP 01 contract as the market fluctuates in the short - term [54]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Chlor - alkali Industry - Price and Spread: The prices of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends. The export profit of caustic soda decreased, while the PVC export profit increased [2]. - Supply: The caustic soda industry's operating rate decreased slightly, while the PVC total operating rate increased [2]. - Demand: The downstream operating rates of caustic soda and PVC showed some improvement [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of caustic soda and PVC showed different trends, with an increase in some and a decrease in others [2]. Crude Oil Industry - Price and Spread: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [5]. - Supply - Demand: The US EIA inventory decreased significantly, but Cushing inventory increased, and OPEC + production increased [5]. Methanol Industry - Price and Spread: The methanol futures and spot prices increased, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [9]. - Inventory: The methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [10]. - Operating Rate: The upstream domestic operating rate decreased slightly, while the overseas operating rate increased slightly. The downstream MTO operating rate increased [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Price and Spread: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their raw materials changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [16]. - Inventory: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased slightly, while the styrene inventory increased [16]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products showed different trends [16]. Urea Industry - Price and Spread: The urea futures and spot prices changed, and the spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [19]. - Supply - Demand: The domestic urea daily production decreased slightly, and the inventory in some areas changed [19]. - Position and Volume: The long and short positions of the top 20 increased, and the trading volume increased significantly [19]. Polyester Industry Chain - Price and Spread: The prices of raw materials such as crude oil, PX, and downstream polyester products changed, and the spreads between different varieties also changed [50]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of PX, PTA, and downstream polyester products showed different trends [50]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory decreased, and the PTA inventory situation was also mentioned [50]. Polyolefin Industry - Price and Spread: The prices of LLDPE and PP futures and spot changed, and the spreads between different contracts and regions also changed [54]. - Operating Rate: The operating rates of PE and PP plants and their downstream industries showed different trends [54]. - Inventory: The PE and PP enterprise and social inventories showed different trends [54].