瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance with most seeing inflation as a higher risk than employment. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy has increased nickel supply costs, and the domestic nickel ore market shows a tight supply situation. Refined nickel production has slightly increased, while on the demand - side, stainless - steel mills are increasing production and new - energy vehicle sales are rising, but ternary battery demand is limited. Recently, nickel prices have declined, improving the downstream purchasing atmosphere, with domestic and overseas inventories decreasing. Technically, with increasing positions and falling prices, there is a divergence between long and short positions, and the nickel price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to either wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 11.95 - 12.4 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 119,830 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread is - 130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,045 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Nickel is 102,385 lots, an increase of 51,529 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 32,546 lots, a decrease of 1,310 lots. LME nickel inventory is 209,346 tons, an increase of 18 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, an increase of 768 tons. The warrant quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 22,588 tons, an increase of 29 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 121,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot average price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 121,200 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warrant) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,270 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 195.01 dollars/ton, up 10.18 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.22 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.04 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 169.81 million tons, a decrease of 4.59 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 58.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.02 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most thought inflation was a higher risk than employment, sending a hawkish signal. The National Energy Administration released that the total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the photovoltaic industry's competition order and curb low - price disorderly competition [3].