瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market is expected to face continued adjustment next week due to increased supply and weakened demand. The price is likely to show a volatile trend, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The industrial silicon market will also maintain a volatile state as demand declines steadily while supply also drops. It is recommended to wait and see or arrange put options [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for polysilicon was 51,530 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 149,610 lots, down 476 lots. The 11 - 12 spread of polysilicon was -2,325 yuan, up 85 yuan, and the polysilicon - industrial silicon spread was 42,895 yuan/ton, down 590 yuan [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon was 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was -4,875 yuan/ton, up 385 yuan. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged. The average prices of cauliflower - type, dense - type, and re - feeding polysilicon were 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 34.8 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract for industrial silicon was 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the spot price was 9,250 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons, and the monthly import volume was 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon was 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons, and the total social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon was 100,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume was 1,170 tons, up 57 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China was 6.3 US dollars/kg, unchanged, and the monthly average import price was 2.19 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells was 67,386,000 kilowatts, down 3,183,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells was 0.82 RMB/W, up 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules was 88,975,860 units, down 14,424,120 units, and the monthly import volume was 11,095,900 units, down 1,002,590 units. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules was 0.31 US dollars/unit, down 0.01 US dollars/unit. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon was 27.86, unchanged [2] Industry News - On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order in the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link, and the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links are expected to be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. However, considering the resumption of production at some bases of three domestic leading enterprises and the release of some new production capacities in the second half of the year, if the resumption progress accelerates or new production capacities are released ahead of schedule next week, the market supply of polysilicon will increase [2] Viewpoint Summary - In June, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was only 14.36 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38% and a month - on - month decrease of 85%. Although the global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be about 580 GW in 2025 and the domestic demand is about 1300,000 tons, the short - term weak demand restricts the rise of polysilicon prices. It is expected that the start - up rate of downstream photovoltaic enterprises will hardly increase. With increased supply and weakened demand, the polysilicon market will continue to adjust next week. The price is likely to fluctuate, with cost and policy support but limited upside by downstream acceptance. The demand for industrial silicon is steadily declining, and the supply is also decreasing, maintaining a volatile state [2] Key Focus - There is no news today [2]