瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat. Although industrial silicon rebounded significantly today driven by news, it plunged in the late trading session, and there are doubts about whether the upward trend can continue. Currently, the fundamentals do not support a substantial increase. It is recommended to consider mid - to long - term long positions if the price falls below 8,000 yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract is 8,635 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan; the main contract position is 283,578 lots, up 3,710 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 77,137 lots, up 14,988 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,613 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 40 yuan, down 10 yuan [2]. - Spot Market: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 615 yuan/ton, down 245 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,100 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2]. - Upstream Situation: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Industry Situation: The monthly industrial silicon output is 324,700 tons, up 19,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. - Downstream Situation: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 75.05%, up 0.21 percentage points; the monthly aluminum alloy output is 1.669 million tons, up 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.2 Industry News On August 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized another photovoltaic industry symposium to standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry. The meeting on August 19 did not discuss the detailed implementation of "anti - involution" in each link. It is expected that the anti - involution rules for battery, component, silicon wafer, and polysilicon links will be discussed in the next two days. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take promoting a reasonable recovery of prices as an important consideration for monetary policy [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In the southwest region, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to rise, and the output in the southwest region is expected to increase week - on - week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon factories have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [2]. - Demand Side: The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy fields. The organic silicon market remained flat this week, with slightly lower profits and a flat operating rate, which has limited driving effect on the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, although the current operating rate is low, there is pressure from potential resumption of production and new production capacity; the short - term weak demand situation is difficult to improve significantly, but the cost support is obvious, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2].