Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the inventory is still at a relatively high level. The option market sentiment has turned bullish, with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis and the green column converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 82,760 yuan/ton, up 1,780 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,510 lots, down 3,052 lots; the position of the main contract is 390,069 lots, down 5,033 lots; the spread between near and far - month contracts is 820 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 24,045 lots, up 430 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 85,200 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 82,900 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,440 yuan/ton, down 2,280 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 980 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 8,275 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,645 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, down 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, down 63.31 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 48%, down 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 131,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, up 1 percentage point; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 51%, down 1 percentage point [2] - The monthly production of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units; the monthly export volume is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 1.308 million units, up 600,000 units [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 159,626 contracts, up 14,286 contracts; the total put position is 146,399 contracts, down 1,225 contracts; the put - call ratio of total positions is 91.71%, down 9.8577 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.44%, up 0.0080 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 866,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 2% compared with the same period in August last year and an 8% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 13.611 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The retail sales of the national passenger car new - energy market were 502,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 9% compared with the same period in August last year and a 12% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the national passenger car new - energy market was 58.0%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 6.958 million units, a year - on - year increase of 28% [2] - From January - July 2025, the top ten SUV manufacturers in terms of sales sold a total of 5.599 million vehicles, accounting for 67.2% of the total SUV sales. Among these ten enterprises, the sales of Tesla and GAC Toyota decreased to varying degrees compared with the same period last year, while the sales of other enterprises increased to varying degrees [2] - Premier African Minerals announced that its Zulu lithium project has made a major breakthrough, and the plant has moved from the commissioning phase to the refining optimization phase [2] - Sigma Lithium's lithium concentrate production in the second quarter reached 68,368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38%, exceeding the quarterly target of 67,500 tons; the full - sustaining cost dropped to 594 US dollars/ton, lower than the target value of 660 US dollars [2]
瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250821
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 09:14