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瑞达期货红枣产业日报-20250821
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The market acknowledges the potential reduction in the new season's production, but there are differences in production estimates. Mysteel initially estimates that the new - season production will decrease by 5 - 10% compared to the normal year of 2022 and 20 - 25% compared to 2024, with an expected output of 56 - 62 million tons. Before the production is finalized, the expectation of a new - season production cut supports the red date futures price. However, as the previous price increase has digested the positive impact of the production cut, the driving force for the red date 2601 contract has weakened. It is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment, and attention should be paid to the actual new - season production. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main red date futures contract is 11,470 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 136,661 lots, with an increase of 1,130 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 1,464 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts is 9,826. The total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,237, with an increase of 1 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The prices of red date products in different regions remain stable. For example, the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.8 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 11.5 yuan/kg [2]. 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual red date production is 3.187 million tons, and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, with a decrease of 4.1 in the area [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,686 tons, a decrease of 98 tons compared to last week, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.00% and a year - on - year increase of 79.94%. The monthly export volume of red dates is 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 17,115,674 kg [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi is 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan/kg. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative year - on - year production of Hao Xiang Ni's red dates is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 21st, in the Alar region, the weather changed from light rain to cloudy with temperatures between 16 - 28°C. Jujube farmers are actively engaged in field management, and the jujubes are about to enter the sugar - increasing period. Attention should be paid to the impact of rainfall on the fruits. On Thursday, the red date 2601 contract closed up 0.39% [2].