建信期货棉花日报-20250822

Report Overview - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton (ZCE cotton futures) is in a volatile adjustment phase. The spot cotton price index 328 is at 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The domestic cotton market is expected to see stable to increasing production in the new season. Before the new cotton is on the market, Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate around the expected opening price of seed cotton, with limited upside and downside in the short term [7][8]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market has increased recently, but overall it remains average. The cotton yarn price is strong and rising steadily. The demand for cotton grey fabric has not improved significantly, and the trading volume is weak [7]. - The overseas market has limited changes. The signing progress of US cotton for the 2025/26 season is slower than the same period last year. The short - term trend of the outer market is difficult to break out of the range - bound pattern [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton is in a volatile adjustment. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,240 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The low - basis price of 2024/25 Xinjiang Kashi lint 3129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is in the range of CF09 + 1050 - 1200, but the quantity is scarce. Most quotes are above CF09 + 1200, all for self - pick - up in Xinjiang. The sales basis of 2024/25 northern Xinjiang machine - picked 4129/29B/impurity within 3.5 is mostly above CF09 + 1450, and the low - basis is in the range of CF09 + 1350 - 1450 [7]. - Cotton Yarn Market: The recent trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market is okay, with increased downstream replenishment purchases, but overall it is still average. The cotton yarn price is strong and rising steadily [7]. - Cotton Grey Fabric Market: The demand for cotton grey fabric has not improved significantly, the delivery speed of fabric mills has not continued to accelerate, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase has not increased. Fabric mills report that the current situation is worse than the same period in previous years. Although the quotes have increased, the trading volume is difficult to follow up [7]. - Market Outlook: Overseas market changes are limited, and the signing progress of US cotton for the 2025/26 season is slower than the same period last year. The short - term outer market is difficult to break out of the range - bound pattern. In the domestic market, as the new cotton is about to be on the market, the expected output is stable to increasing. The downstream industry is gradually improving marginally. Before the new cotton is on the market, Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate around the expected opening price of seed cotton, with limited short - term upside and downside [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has decided that starting from September 1, 2026, the warehouse premium and discount for the warehouse receipts registered in the following cotton delivery warehouses will be calculated according to the adjusted standards. For the warehouse receipts registered before September 1, 2026, the original premium and discount standards will apply [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts related to cotton, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, price differences between different futures contracts, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, as well as exchange rate data such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the US dollar against the Indian rupee. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCBI Futures [17][18][19][20][26][27]