建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Futures prices of plastics and PP are oscillating at high levels, boosting market sentiment. Spot prices are stronger than the previous day, and downstream buyers are purchasing on - demand. - The supply - side pressure of polyolefins is difficult to completely eliminate in the short term. The upstream device operating rate continues to increase. Although the PP maintenance loss is still high, the impact of maintenance is decreasing, and the new capacity expansion expectation is strengthening. The PE supply pressure is relatively neutral next week. - The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP have increased month - on - month, and some enterprises' orders have improved, but the off - peak to peak season transition in fundamentals may bring marginal improvement in supply - demand, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to demand improvement and inventory reduction support [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The opening, closing, highest, lowest prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and open interest changes of plastics (L2601, L2605, L2509) and PP (PP2601, PP2605, PP2509) futures contracts are presented. For example, L2601 closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan/ton (1.15%), and PP2601 closed at 7048 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan (0.51%) [3]. - Supply - side: The upstream device operating rate continues to increase. For PP, the maintenance impact is decreasing, and there is an expectation of new capacity expansion (e.g., the 90 - million - ton/year device of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical may be put into production). For PE, the centralized maintenance period has ended, the operating rate and output are continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is relatively neutral next week due to more planned shutdowns [4]. - Downstream Consumption: The operating rates of downstream industries such as agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP have increased month - on - month, and some enterprises' orders have improved, but the expectation for the peak season is weaker year - on - year [4]. 3.2 Industry News - Inventory: On August 21, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 750,000 tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons (4.46%) from the previous working day, compared with 795,000 tons in the same period last year. - PE Market: Most PE market prices have increased. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China are in the ranges of 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is 6450 - 6490 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some PDH device maintenance has boosted market sentiment, downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased, and producers are more willing to hold prices. - PP Market: The domestic PP market is slightly warmer, with some prices increasing by 20 - 70 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China are in the ranges of 6900 - 7030 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, and 6870 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively [5][6]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple figures are presented, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][13][14].