全球跨资产策略_摩根士丹利研究_关键预测》-Global Cross-Asset Strategy_ Morgan Stanley Research_ Key Forecasts

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal-weight rating on equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [3][4]. Core Insights - The US labor market is showing signs of downside risks, with employment growth moderating faster than expected, leading to a forecasted decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 [1][7]. - Global growth is expected to decrease from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.6% in 2025, influenced by tariff impacts and trade tensions [1][7]. - The report suggests a focus on quality assets amid growth and tariff risks, favoring quality cyclical stocks and investment-grade credit over high-yield credit [3][5]. Economic Forecasts - The US GDP growth is projected at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, with inflation expected to be 3.0% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 [9]. - The Euro Area GDP growth is forecasted at 1.0% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026, with inflation at 2.1% and 1.8% respectively [9]. - Japan's GDP growth is expected to be 0.4% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, with inflation at 2.1% and 1.7% [9]. - Emerging Markets (EM) are projected to grow at 3.8% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, with inflation at 1.6% and 1.9% [9]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the report recommends positioning in quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage and cheaper valuations [5]. - For Japan, the focus is on domestic reflation and corporate reform beneficiaries, as well as defense-related spending [5]. - In Europe, key sectors for overweight positions include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials [5]. - In Emerging Markets, the preference is for financials and profitability leaders, particularly domestic-focused businesses [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that US markets remain unmatched in size and liquidity, but rising policy uncertainty may pressure the dollar as foreign investors increase FX-hedging ratios [3][12]. - The anticipated Fed rate cuts in 2026 are expected to influence Treasury yields, with 10-year Treasury yields projected to reach 4.00% by the end of 2025 [12][13].