大越期货尿素早报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the export policy not being relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today, as the international urea price is relatively strong, and the domestic market shows a clear oversupply situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures market has been fluctuating recently. After the "anti - involution" sentiment cooled down, the market returned to fundamentals. On the 19th, rumors of increased urea exports to India during the China - India foreign ministers' meeting led to a rise in futures prices. Currently, the daily production and operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and the overall inventory is high. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are both low, and agricultural demand is weak. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, and although the export profit has declined, it remains strong, while the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), suggesting a bearish signal [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. - Leverage Factors: The bullish factor is the strong international price, while the bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and the weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - Spot: The spot price of the delivery product is 1820 (-30), the Shandong spot price is 1820 (-40), the Henan spot price is 1840 (0), and the FOB China price is 2942 [6]. - Futures: The price of the UR01 contract is 1764 (-12), the UR05 contract is 1797 (-13), and the UR09 contract is 1737 (-14). The basis of the UR2601 contract is 56 (-18), with a premium - discount ratio of 3.1% [4][6]. Inventory The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.457 million tons (-0.2), including 0.968 million tons in factory inventory and 0.489 million tons in port inventory. The number of warehouse receipts is 3573 (0) [4][6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing, with capacity growth rates of 8.9% in 2019, 15.5% in 2020, 11.4% in 2021, 8.4% in 2022, 14.1% in 2023, and 11.0% in 2025E. - Production has also generally increased, and the apparent consumption has shown an upward trend. The import dependence has gradually decreased over the years [10].