大越期货白糖早报-20250822

Group 1: Report Core View - The import volume of white sugar has increased significantly. Due to good domestic sales, the spot price is firm, and the domestic market trend is stronger than the international market. The main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar is under short - term pressure at the 5700 mark and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5650 - 5700 intraday [5][9] - The bullish factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and Coca - Cola in the US changing its formula to use sucrose. The bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and the global supply surplus in the new year [7] Group 2: Industry Data Summary Fundamental Data - SCA Brasil estimates that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season will be 39.1 million tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in China in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons; the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 320,000 tons year - on - year; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a decrease of 68,500 tons year - on - year [4] - The basis of Liuzhou spot is 342 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures. As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar season was 1.61 million tons. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4][6] Supply - demand Forecasts from Different Institutions | Institution | Supply - demand Balance (10,000 tons) | Global Production (10,000 tons) | Global Consumption (10,000 tons) | Inventory - consumption Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Green Pool | Surplus 270 | 20,200 (second - highest in history) | 19,830 | Not specified | | USDA | Surplus 1,139.7 | 18,931.8 | 17,792.1 | 23% | | CZarnikow | Surplus 780 | 18,720 | Not specified | Not specified | | Datagro | Surplus 258 | Not specified | Not specified | Not specified | [36] China's Sugar Supply - demand Balance Sheet | Indicator | 2024/25 (August Estimate) | 2023/24 | 2025/26 (July Forecast) | 2025/26 (August Forecast) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Sugar - crop Sown Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Harvested Area (1000 hectares) | 1262 | 1396 | 1440 | 1440 | | Sugar - crop Yield per Hectare (ton per hectares) | 60.70 | 58.65 | 59.70 | 59.70 | | Sugar Production (10,000 tons) | 996 | 1116 | 1120 | 1120 | | Import (10,000 tons) | 475 | 500 | 500 | 500 | | Consumption (10,000 tons) | 1550 | 1580 | 1590 | 1590 | | Balance Change (10,000 tons) | - 94 | 20 | 12 | 12 | | International Sugar Price (cents per pound) | 21.70 | 15.5 - 20 | 16.5 - 21.5 | 16.5 - 21.5 | | Domestic Sugar Price (yuan per ton) | 6492 | 5900 - 6200 | 5800 - 6500 | 5800 - 6500 | [38] Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost (50% Tariff) | Month | ICE Raw Sugar Average Price (cents per pound) | Refined Tax - included Cost (yuan per ton) | Key Market Events | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | July 2024 | 18.5 - 20.7 | 6330 - 6520 | Weak Brazilian crushing data, but global production increase expectation suppresses prices | | September 2024 | 18.94 | 6390 | Higher - than - expected crushing volume in central - southern Brazil, cost slightly rebounds | | January 2025 | 17.70 (far - month contract) | 5990 | Raw sugar falls to a four - year low, import window opens | | June 2025 | 16.0 - 17.0 | 5650 - 5700 | High sugar - making ratio in Brazil, clear production increase in Thailand, cost further declines | | July 2025 | 16.35 | 5600 - 5650 | Concerns about decreased yield in Brazil briefly support prices, but supply - demand relaxation trend remains unchanged | [45] Group 3: Main Position Analysis - The main position is bearish, with an increase in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, leaning towards bearish [5]