Report Summary 1. Core View - The copper market is influenced by multiple factors, with the price expected to undergo oscillatory adjustments. The fundamentals are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production while the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3%. The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, also indicating a neutral situation. Inventory levels are neutral, with an increase in overall copper inventory on August 21 and a rise in SHFE copper inventory compared to last week. The market trend is bearish as the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, but the net long position of the main players is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Overall, factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season contribute to the price adjustment [2]. 2. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 78,745 with a basis of 205, showing a premium of the spot over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Inventory: On August 21, the copper inventory increased by 0 to 156,350 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week, being neutral [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Main Players' Positions: The main players have a net long position, but the long position is decreasing, showing a bullish tendency [2]. - Expectation: The copper price will experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - Likely Positive Factors: Domestic policy easing [3]. - Likely Negative Factors: Escalation of the trade war [3]. 3.3 Inventory - Exchange Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 4,428 tons to 86,361 tons compared to last week [2]. - Bonded Area Inventory: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.4 Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows that in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [20][22].
大越期货沪铜早报-20250822
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-22 02:29