大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250822

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to oscillate today. The "anti-involution" policy-driven gains have subsided, crude oil prices are falling, and while the demand for agricultural films for LLDPE is below expectations, the downstream demand for PP in sectors like pipes and plastic weaving is slightly improving. The industrial inventories for both are neutral [4][7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - Fundamentals: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, in contraction for four consecutive months. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The "anti-involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market has returned to fundamentals after the sentiment cooled. Short-term oil prices are oscillating downward. The overall demand for agricultural films is below expectations, and the film production start-up rate is low. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,230 (+50), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -156, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 564,000 tons (+59,000), which is bearish [4]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - Main Position: The main LLDPE position is net short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Considering the factors such as the subsiding policy-driven gains, falling crude oil prices, and below-expected agricultural film demand, it is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - Factors: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and falling crude oil prices. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [6]. PP Analysis - Fundamentals: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows a contraction in the manufacturing PMI. The "anti-involution" policy impact has waned. Short-term oil prices are falling. Downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, with a slight improvement in the demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7,030 (-0), with the overall fundamentals being neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -18, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, indicating a neutral situation [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 572,000 tons (-15,000), which is neutral [7]. - Market: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish situation [7]. - Main Position: The main PP position is net short, with a decrease in short positions, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. Given the policy and market conditions, it is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. - Factors: The bullish factor is cost support, while the bearish factors are weak demand and falling crude oil prices. The main logic is driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro policies [9]. Market Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The report provides detailed spot and futures prices for LLDPE and PP, including prices in different regions, changes, and prices of different contracts [10]. - Inventory Data: It shows the inventory types and quantities for LLDPE and PP, such as warehouse receipts, comprehensive factory inventories, and social inventories, along with their changes [10]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: The supply and demand balance sheet from 2018 - 2025E shows data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects, reflecting the industry's development trends over the years [15]. - Polypropylene: Similar to polyethylene, the supply and demand balance sheet for polypropylene from 2018 - 2025E presents relevant data to show the industry's supply and demand situation [17].