建信期货集运指数日报-20250822

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Although the price has stabilized, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The freight rate this year may show the characteristic of an even weaker off - season. The main October contract has a deep discount, and the short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still show a downward trend in the long term. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline to 2180.17 points this week. The August freight rate has been reduced, and now the price has stabilized. The 40GP large container price of Maersk on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the fourth week of August is about $300 lower than that in the third week. The quotes of other shipping companies are concentrated in the range of $2500 - $2900. CMA CGM and ONE's September freight rates are slightly higher than those at the end of August [8] - Market outlook: Due to the great impact of tariffs on foreign trade and the high shipping capacity supply in the off - season, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The main October contract has a deep discount and the decline rate has slowed down. The short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still decline in the long term. It is recommended to short the October contract on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Market adjustment: From August 11th to 15th, the China export container shipping market continued to adjust, with most route freight rates falling, dragging down the comprehensive index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 15th was 1460.19 points, a 2.0% decline from the previous period [9] - European economy: Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, far lower than market expectations, and the euro - zone data showed a similar trend. The European economy will continue to face challenges, and the spot market booking price continues to decline. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports on August 15th was $1820/TEU, a 7.2% decline from the previous period [9][10] - Mediterranean and North American routes: The Mediterranean route's freight rate continued to decline, with the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports on August 15th at $2279/TEU, a 1.7% decline from the previous period. In the North American route, the US PPI in July increased significantly, and the customs tariff revenue reached $28 billion, a 273% increase year - on - year, but the fiscal deficit still increased by 10%. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on August 15th decreased by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively from the previous period [10] - Geopolitical events: The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. The Israeli Air Force's air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port have further disrupted the port's operations [10] - Trade policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Price - European route: The SCFIS of the European route (basic ports) on August 18th was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% decline from August 11th [12] - US West route: The SCFIS of the US West route (basic ports) on August 18th was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11th [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 21st shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and position changes. For example, the EC2510 contract closed at 1325.0, with a decline of 33.8 and a decline rate of 2.49%, and the trading volume was 35008, with an open interest of 54293 and a position increase of 2566 [6]