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甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250822
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-08-22 02:47

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Methanol: Port inventory has significantly accumulated, with high imports and high actual inventory. The expected return of inland supply is anticipated. With the upcoming peak season for traditional demand, attention should be given to whether demand can support the market after the return of inland supply. If inventory deteriorates significantly, methanol may experience a valuation decline [2]. - Polyethylene: The inventory of the two major oil companies is neutral year - on - year. Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while coal - chemical enterprises are reducing inventory. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. The import profit is around - 100 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price spreads are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In August, maintenance has decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production has increased. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation, US quotes, and the commissioning of new plants in 2025 [7]. - Polypropylene: Upstream, the two major oil companies are accumulating inventory, while the middle - stream is reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price spread is neutral, and the import profit is around - 800. Exports have been consistently good this year. The non - standard price spread is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. Supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are currently average, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 09 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, but there is a strong willingness to hold inventory at low prices. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants are undergoing seasonal maintenance in summer, with the load center between the spring maintenance and the high - production period in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and export sustainability in Q4. Near - term export orders have slightly declined. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. The PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 801 | 2325 | 2325 | 2550 | 2560 | 2560 | 2695 | 264 | 324 | 34 | - 8 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/18 | 801 | 2307 | 2303 | 2515 | 2535 | 2560 | 2670 | 263 | 324 | 24 | - 5 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/19 | 801 | 2280 | 2280 | 2515 | 2500 | 2560 | 2670 | 263 | 322 | 13 | 0 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/20 | 801 | 2305 | 2290 | 2510 | 2500 | 2500 | 2670 | 266 | 322 | 6 | - 5 | - 1237 | | 2025/08/21 | 801 | 2305 | 2305 | 2510 | 2500 | 2500 | 2670 | 266 | 322 | 6 | - 5 | - 1237 | |日度变化|0|0|15|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|0|[2] Polyethylene | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 825 | 7220 | 7335 | 9525 | 7650 | 850 | 906 | - 134 | 7351 | - 80 | 77 | 7345 | | 2025/08/18 | 825 | 7200 | 7300 | 9525 | 7600 | 850 | 906 | - 170 | 7334 | - 120 | 77 | 7345 | | 2025/08/19 | 825 | 7180 | 7300 | 9525 | 7600 | 850 | 906 | - 167 | 7307 | - 120 | 77 | 7724 | | 2025/08/20 | 830 | 7200 | 7300 | 9500 | 7570 | 845 | 851 | - 117 | 7347 | - 110 | 77 | 7684 | | 2025/08/21 | 830 | 7230 | 7325 | 9500 | 7570 | 845 | 851 | - 117 | 7386 | - 160 | 77 | 7684 | |日度变化|0|30|25|0|0|0|0|0|39|- 50|0|0|[7] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 6400 | 745 | 7035 | 7058 | 6900 | 7234 | 860 | 970 | - 19 | 7084 | - 50 | 77 | 12860 | | 2025/08/18 | 6400 | 745 | 7005 | 7035 | 6870 | 7234 | 860 | 970 | - 16 | 7048 | - 60 | 77 | 12860 | | 2025/08/19 | 6400 | 745 | 6970 | 7015 | 6870 | 7230 | 865 | 970 | - 14 | 7016 | - 50 | 77 | 14040 | | 2025/08/20 | 6380 | 750 | 6930 | 7000 | 6860 | 7202 | 865 | 980 | - 18 | 7056 | - 50 | 77 | 13940 | | 2025/08/21 | 6450 | 750 | 6950 | 6998 | 6870 | 7202 | 865 | 980 | - 18 | 7048 | - 90 | 77 | 13940 | |日度变化|70|0|20|- 2|10|0|0|0|0|- 8|- 40|0|0|[7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价(CFR中国)|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/08/15 | 2250 | 852 | 4880 | 5500 | 5450 | 4550 | 700 | 468 | 356 | - 244 | - 70 | | 2025/08/18 | 2200 | 872 | 4860 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 700 | 492 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/19 | 2200 | 872 | 4820 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 700 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/20 | 2200 | 872 | 4800 | 5500 | 5450 | 4530 | 725 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 170 | | 2025/08/21 | 2200 | 867 | 4850 | 5500 | 5450 | 4500 | 725 | 494 | 356 | - 244 | - 180 | |日度变化|0|- 5|50|0|0|- 30|0|0|0|0|- 10|[7]