永安期货有色早报-20250822

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the macro sentiment continued to show a rise in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1] - Aluminum supply increased slightly, and the demand in August was expected to be in the seasonal off - season, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. An inventory increase was expected in August. Attention should be paid to the demand situation and potential arbitrage opportunities [5] - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply increased, while domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas demand was average. The strategy was to wait and see in the short term, hold a short position in the long - term, and consider positive arbitrage opportunities [8] - Nickel supply remained at a high level, demand was weak, and inventories were stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continued to be observed [9] - The fundamentals of stainless steel remained weak. Supply was partially reduced, demand was mainly for rigid needs, costs were stable, and inventories decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [12] - Lead prices fluctuated this week. Supply was affected by various factors, demand was lackluster, and it was expected that lead prices would remain in a low - level oscillation next week [13] - Tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply was affected by domestic production cuts and overseas复产 signals, demand was weak, and the short - term supply - demand situation was weak. Short - term short - selling and long - term long - holding strategies were recommended [15] - Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan showed different trends. The current balance was in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the long - term outlook was for bottom - level oscillation [16] - Lithium carbonate prices were strong this week. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end disturbances. The price had a large upward elasticity and strong downward support in the short term [18] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - From August 15th to 21st, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 40, the waste - refined copper spread increased by 40, and other indicators showed corresponding changes. The downstream orders had support around 7 - 8, and the spot market trading was okay. The potential impact of the decline in recycled rod production on refined copper consumption should be noted [1] Aluminum - From August 15th to 21st, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices increased, while the domestic and imported alumina prices remained unchanged. The supply increased slightly, demand was in the off - season, and an inventory increase was expected in August [5] Zinc - From August 15th to 21st, the spot premium of zinc increased by 10, and zinc prices in different regions showed an upward trend. Supply increased, domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand was average. Short - term observation and long - term short - position strategies were recommended [8] Nickel - From August 15th to 21st, the price of 1.5 - grade Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100. Supply remained high, demand was weak, and inventories were stable [9] Stainless Steel - From August 15th to 21st, the price of 201 cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 50, and other prices remained unchanged. Supply was partially reduced, demand was mainly for rigid needs, and inventories decreased slightly [12] Lead - From August 15th to 21st, the lead spot premium decreased by 5, and other indicators changed accordingly. Supply was affected by various factors, demand was lackluster, and lead prices were expected to remain low - level oscillating [13] Tin - From August 15th to 21st, the tin spot import and export earnings, positions, and other indicators changed. Supply was affected by domestic production cuts and overseas复产 signals, demand was weak, and short - term short - selling and long - term long - holding strategies were recommended [15] Industrial Silicon - From August 15th to 21st, the basis of different grades of industrial silicon changed, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 553. The current balance was in a state of slight inventory reduction, and the long - term outlook was for bottom - level oscillation [16] Lithium Carbonate - From August 15th to 21st, the SMM electric and industrial lithium carbonate prices decreased by 500, and the basis and other indicators changed. The price was strong this week, with large upward elasticity and strong downward support in the short term [16][18]