工业硅期货早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8450 - 8820 yuan/ton [6]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply side production scheduling has increased, and it is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery. The cost support has weakened. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50095 - 52965 yuan/ton [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57% [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.56%. The demand has increased [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.36%. The sample enterprise inventory was 171,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.65%. The main port inventory was 117,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.84% [6]. - Basis: On August 21, the basis of the 11 - contract was 415 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main contract decreased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated production scheduling for August is 130,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.76% compared with the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.57%. The inventory was 174,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.07%. The production of silicon wafers is currently in a loss state [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 249,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.89%, at a historically high level [11]. - Basis: On August 21, the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2530 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The net long position of the main contract decreased [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of multiple contracts increased, such as the 01 - contract increasing by 2.58%, and the 02 - contract increasing by 2.82% [17]. - Spot prices of some varieties remained unchanged, such as the spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon remaining at 9050 yuan/ton [17]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.65% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, such as the 06 - contract decreasing by 0.72% [19]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends, with some prices remaining unchanged and some having small increases or decreases [19]. - Inventory: The total weekly inventory increased by 2.89% [19]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - Production: The daily DMC production was 49,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.20%. The daily capacity utilization rate was 75.05%, remaining unchanged [17]. - Price: The daily DMC price was 11,000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The daily profit was 392 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The monthly DMC inventory was 54,300 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous period [17]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots was 111,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.28%. The monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% [17]. - Price: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.49% [17]. - Inventory: The weekly aluminum alloy ingot social inventory was 49,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.07% [18]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon (Downstream) - Silicon Wafers: The weekly production was 12.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 5.74%. The weekly inventory was 26.5GW, a month - on - month decrease of 22.06% [19]. - Battery Cells: The weekly inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 5.81GW, a month - on - month increase of 16.67%. The monthly output was 58.19GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% [19]. - Components: The monthly output was 47.1GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.73%. The domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and the European inventory decreased by 2.30% [19].