大越期货原油早报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil stabilized, oscillated, and rebounded. The US imposed sanctions on a batch of Iranian - related enterprises, increasing geopolitical concerns. The Russia - Ukraine negotiation still takes time, and the uncertainties during this period drive up oil prices. - Some Fed governors' speeches reduce the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut. The market continues to focus on Powell's speech. Goldman Sachs believes Powell's speech on Friday won't clearly indicate a September rate cut but may convey support for it. - After technical repair, oil prices still face significant fluctuations. Short - term, it is expected to run with high - volatility oscillations, operating in the range of 488 - 498. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Some Fed presidents are lukewarm about the possibility of a rate cut next month. The US may double tariffs on India. Angola's July oil production fell below 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two and a half years [3]. - Basis: On August 21, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.78 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.38 per barrel. The basis was 33.86 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures [3]. - Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels. Cushing's inventory increased by 419,000 barrels. The Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 4.767 million barrels as of August 21 [3]. - Market Trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average [3]. - Main Positions: As of August 12, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the long positions decreased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term, it will operate in the 488 - 498 range. Long - term, hold long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Three Fed officials cooled the expectation of a rate cut next month. The market is waiting for Powell's speech. Currently, the interest - rate futures price implies a 70.4% probability of a September rate cut and about a 47 - basis - point rate cut for the year [5]. - Putin requires Ukraine to abandon the entire Donbass region, give up the ambition to join NATO, remain neutral, and ban Western troops from entering the country. The Russia - US summit mainly discussed the compromise plan for the Ukraine issue [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Likely Positive Factors: The US imposed secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period was extended again [6]. - Likely Negative Factors: There is a possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts decrease, and trade tariff risks increase. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased by 0.83, 0.81, 4.70, and 0.98 respectively, with increases of 1.24%, 1.29%, 0.98%, and 1.43% [7]. - Spot Market: The prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil increased by 0.65, 0.81, 0.96, 0.88, and 1.05 respectively, with increases of 0.96%, 1.29%, 1.39%, 1.37%, and 1.52% [9]. - Inventory Data: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 decreased by 2.417 million barrels, and the EIA inventory decreased by 6.014 million barrels [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased by 25,087 [3][15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of August 12, the main long positions decreased [3][17].