大越期货甲醇早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol price will mainly fluctuate this week. The MA2601 contract is expected to trade between 2370 - 2450 yuan/ton. Inland methanol market is expected to be weak and volatile, while the port market may maintain a volatile trend, waiting for positive policy and news guidance [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For the MA2601 contract, the fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory situation is neutral, with port inventories increasing. The market trend on the chart is bearish, while the net long position of the main players is decreasing, which is bullish. Overall, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate this week [4]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Some plants have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to start a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant later this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde market has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2335 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 90, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. The futures closing price of the main contract is 2425 yuan/ton [4][8]. - Inventory: As of August 21, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 934,200 tons, an increase of 43,100 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in the coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 35,700 tons to 606,900 tons [4]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8]. - Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol is 223 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of natural gas - based methanol is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of coke oven gas - based methanol is 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 323 yuan/ton from the previous week [22]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with varying maintenance start and end times and losses. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's 100,000 - ton/year coke oven gas - based plant has been under maintenance since November 2024, with a weekly loss of 1950 tons [59]. - Overseas Plants: Some overseas methanol plants are in different operating states. For example, some Iranian plants are in the process of resuming production, while some plants in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are operating normally [60]. - Olefin Plants: Domestic olefin plants also have different operating conditions. Some are operating stably, some are under maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance or production [61].