大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,138 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 80,393 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.34%, with a production profit of 3,613 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 2,995 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong motivation [8] - Inventory: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.73%; the downstream inventory was 51,507 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.68%; other inventory was 43,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46% [8] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 will be 84,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%, and the import volume will be 18,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.62%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 80,940 - 84,580 yuan/ton [8] - Basis: On August 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish trend [8] - Main Force Position: The net short position of the main force decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - Lithium Carbonate Market: The daily opening rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.77%. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.22%. The supply - demand balance was - 1090 tons, a significant change from the previous month [17] - Lithium Hydroxide Market: The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94%. The monthly net export volume was 4,777.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. The supply - demand balance was - 3149 tons, a change from the previous month [17] - Downstream Market: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 72,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.71%. The monthly production of ternary materials was 25,130 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.95% [17] 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - Price and Production: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines has also changed over time. For example, the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years [23] - Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate: The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed. The inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has shown different trends in different years [23] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Production and Capacity: The weekly opening rate and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate has also changed over time [28] - Import and Supply - Demand Balance: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months [33] 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [36] - Export and Supply - Demand Balance: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months [39] 3.6 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelters, downstream, and others) have different trends [49] - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different links (smelters and downstream) has changed [49] 3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery Demand: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells and the winning bid of energy storage projects have also changed [53][55] - Ternary Precursor Demand: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have different trends [58][61] - Ternary Material Demand: The price, cost, profit, opening rate, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have different trends [64][66] - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron Demand: The price, cost, profit, capacity, opening rate, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron have different trends [68][71] - New Energy Vehicle Demand: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles have different trends [76][80]