大越期货豆粕早报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bean Meal: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, with the rise of oils and fats and technical consolidation. Domestic bean meal is oscillating and falling back, affected by profit - taking and technical factors. In the short term, it may enter an oscillating and bullish pattern, with the M2601 contract oscillating in the range of 3080 - 3140 [8]. - Soybeans: US soybeans are oscillating and rebounding, while domestic soybeans are oscillating and falling back. Affected by factors such as increased expected imports and new - season domestic soybean production, the short - term trend is neutral, with the A2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3960 - 4060 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating and rebounding under the influence of relatively positive USDA report data. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, import arrivals, and China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in August. Affected by the relatively positive USDA report data in August and the rise of rapeseed meal, domestic bean meal is in a short - term oscillating and bullish pattern [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations of pig restocking. The recent increase in bean meal demand supports the price, but due to the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, bean meal returns to an oscillating pattern [12]. - The inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the uncertainty of the China - US tariff war, bean meal is in a short - term bullish oscillation, awaiting further guidance on South American soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bean Meal - Bullish Factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill bean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish Factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. - Soybeans - Bullish Factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish Factors: Continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest, increased Chinese procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: The report provides the transaction average price, trading volume, and price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12th to August 21st [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: The report lists the futures prices of soybeans (bean one, bean two) and bean meal (near - month, main contract), as well as the spot prices of soybeans and bean meal from August 13th to August 21st [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of bean one, bean two, and bean meal from August 11th to August 21st [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the period from 2015 to 2024, and the domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet covers the same period, including data on harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: It includes the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina (2023/24, 2024/25), the United States (2024), and Brazil (2024/25) [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The report presents the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from February to August 2025, including data on harvest area, yield, output, ending inventory, old - crop exports, crushing, and soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [41]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in August is high but declining, with an overall year - on - year increase. The report provides monthly arrival volume data from 2020 to 2025 [44]. 5. Position Data - Bean Meal: The main long positions in bean meal are decreasing, and funds are flowing out [8]. - Soybeans: The main long positions in soybeans are increasing, and funds are flowing in [10].