大越期货菜粕早报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by the news of Australian seed imports and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it is in a moderately strong oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the price. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still variables in China - Canada trade consultations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in the 2540 - 2600 range. The market is affected by the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the news of Australian seed imports. The short - term outlook is moderately strong oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, with good demand expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the reduction in EU production and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply and demand balance sheets: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [25][26] - Price and trading volume: Data on the average trading price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 12 - 21 are provided, as well as the price comparison between rapeseed meal futures and spot [13][15]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts from August 12 - 21 is provided, showing a decreasing trend [17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bearish [9].