大越期货PVC期货早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4958 - 5050. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand. The main risk points include the implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide methods [9][13] - The bullish factors are the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply Side: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 341,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.67%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 139,410 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28%. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a significant increase in scheduled production [7] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 36.91%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 32.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.869 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 72.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.429 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8] - Cost Side: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 230.8115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 8.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 539.6422 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 10.30%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,661.85 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 0.70%, higher than the historical average, and scheduled production may increase [8] - Other Aspects: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. The basis on August 21 was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 326,702 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.10%, calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,202 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%, ethylene method factory inventory was 76,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14%, and social inventory was 492,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8][9][10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, month - to - month spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, etc., of different types of PVC (such as calcium carbide method and ethylene method) in various regions [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Base Price Trend: The report shows the base price trend of PVC futures, including the relationship between the base price, PVC spot price in East China, and the closing price of the main contract [17][18] - Price and Volume Trend: It shows the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, MA120), as well as the position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [20][21] - Spread Analysis: It presents the spread analysis of the main contract of PVC futures, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, etc., of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the cost - profit of the chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [26][28][30][32][35] - Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, production, and maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC supply [37][39][41] - Demand Trend: It includes the trading volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rates (such as profiles, pipes, films, paste resin), and the profit, cost, production, and consumption of paste resin. It also analyzes the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, and local government new special bonds [43][45][47][49][52][54] - Inventory Situation: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [56][57] - Ethylene Method - Related: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [58][59] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from June 2024 to July 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and production [61][62]