Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,500, with a basis of 106, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous 860,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have increased [3] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700 [3] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,520, with a basis of 20, indicating a neutral situation where the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous value of 390,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The main position of palm oil has changed from short to long [5] - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 [5] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,880, with a basis of 89, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous value of 630,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have increased [6] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,700 - 10,100 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macro economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply and Demand Aspects - Supply factors include import soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and total domestic oils and fats inventory [26] - Demand factor: The apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]
大越期货油脂早报-20250822
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-08-22 03:12