棉花早报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 01 has returned to the 14,000 mark for a battle. There are significant differences in views between bulls and bears on whether the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season will be prosperous. Technically, the 14,000 mark is crucial. If it stands above, there is still upward momentum; if it falls below, there is still room for decline [5]. - The overall fundamentals of cotton are neutral. There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous China - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, relatively high current export tariffs to the US, the off - season for consumption, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: According to the ICAC August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the 2025/26 production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China's cotton imports in July were 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%; cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 forecast: production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. - Basis: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,210 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,180 yuan, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 July is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The main position is bullish, with a net long - position increase, indicating a bullish trend for the main force [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast: In August, the total global cotton production was 25.392 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 391,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Consumption was 25.688 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory was 16.093 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 742,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically flat year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year; the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents/pound (median 73 cents) [13]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China: In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.