大越期货生猪期货早报-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In August, as China approaches the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holiday season, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. However, the domestic macro - environment is pessimistically expected, and high - temperature weather suppresses short - term fresh pork consumption. Although China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence, the market is likely to see both supply and demand increase this week, with pig prices maintaining a short - term oscillatory pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 13,600 - 14,000 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada boost market confidence. After the May Day holiday, the domestic pig consumption market enters the off - season, with a decrease in both supply and demand. Spot prices are short - term oscillatory and weak, and the futures market follows a similar pattern. Although the spot price is weak, the decline may be limited due to reduced slaughter. Low pig - raising profits and relatively good large - pig slaughter enthusiasm also suppress short - term price expectations. The stabilization of the market depends on future supply reduction and demand recovery [10]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Likely to be Bullish: Domestic pig inventory has declined year - on - year, and the further decline of domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - Likely to be Bearish: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic outlook due to the Sino - US tariff war, and pig and pork consumption enters the off - season after May Day [11]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: In August, supply and demand are expected to increase. The market may see both pig and meat supply increase. High - temperature weather and a pessimistic macro - environment suppress short - term demand, but tariff policies boost market confidence [8]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the breeding sow inventory was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [8]. - Price: The national average spot price is 13,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is - 65 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward [8]. 5. Position Data - The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [8].