大越期货沥青期货早报-20250822

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned domestic asphalt production in August 2025 is 2.413 million tons, a 5.1% decrease from the previous month and a 17.1% increase year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate increased, and the refineries increased production, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - The demand side indicates that the current overall demand is lower than the historical average, although some sub - sectors'开工 rates have increased [7]. - The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase from the previous period, and the delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In August 2025, the planned asphalt production is 2.413 million tons, with a monthly decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate is 35.2349%, a 1.797 - percentage - point increase. The sample enterprise output is 588,000 tons, a 5.38% increase, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 583,000 tons, a 5.35% decrease. Refineries increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [7]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate is 32.9%, a 0.04 - percentage - point increase; the construction asphalt 开工 rate is 18.2%, unchanged; the modified asphalt 开工 rate is 17.1004%, a 1.23 - percentage - point increase; the road - modified asphalt 开工 rate is 30.5%, a 1.50 - percentage - point increase; the waterproofing membrane 开工 rate is 29.7%, a 2.20 - percentage - point increase. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 498.38 yuan/ton, a 19.60% increase, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong refineries is 904.0171 yuan/ton, a 6.90% increase. Crude oil is strengthening, and short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - Expectation: The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2510 contract fluctuating in the range of 3443 - 3487 [9]. - Likely Factors: Positive factors include the relatively high price of crude oil providing some support; negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand, along with an increased expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - Main Logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [14]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of various indicators such as different contracts' prices, weekly inventories, 开工 rates, and profits [17]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - Basis Analysis: On August 21, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 45 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - Spread Analysis: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [22][25][28][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - It shows the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and other areas [35]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [38][41]. - Supply - Side Analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production, 开工 rate, and maintenance loss volume [44][46][49][53][56][59][61]. - Inventory Analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [64][68][72]. - Import and Export Analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price - spread trend of South Korean asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - Side Analysis: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工 rate, and downstream 开工 conditions [81][84][87][91][96][102]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to August 2025, including downstream demand, port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].