瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250822

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber price increase was limited due to mixed factors. The offer prices in the imported rubber market moved upwards, and downstream factories showed active buying. The offer prices of domestic natural rubber spot followed the market upward, but downstream buying was lukewarm [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's supply is tight due to weather, while Hainan's production is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses continuing to deplete. Demand-side tire capacity utilization increased this week but may decline slightly next week [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Summary - Market Review: Mixed factors limited the upward movement of rubber prices. Imported rubber offers rose, and downstream buying was active. Domestic spot offers followed the market up, but downstream buying was weak [6]. - Market Outlook: Yunnan's raw material supply is tight, while Hainan's is normal. Some factories are competing for raw materials due to potential typhoons. Qingdao's total inventory is decreasing. Tire capacity utilization may decline slightly next week [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,500 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,480 - 12,900 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The main contract price of Shanghai rubber fell 1.76% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell 1.57% [11]. - As of August 22, the spread between Shanghai rubber's September and January contracts was -955, and the spread between 20 - rubber's September and October contracts was -20 [19]. - As of August 22, Shanghai rubber's warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1,460 tons from last week; 20 - rubber's warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1,612 tons from last week [24]. - Spot Market - As of August 21, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - As of August 21, the basis of 20 - rubber was 390 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was -1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 115 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of August 21, the price of field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54.7 (+0.5) Thai baht/kg; cup lump was 49.2 (-0.6) Thai baht/kg. As of August 22, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 37.8 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 dollars/ton from last week [39]. - As of August 21, the price of Yunnan latex was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of Hainan fresh latex was 14,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [42]. - Import and Inventory - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decline of 0.87% [50]. - Downstream - As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [53]. - In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative heavy - truck sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60].