合成橡胶市场周报-20250822

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Market Weekly Report - Report Date: August 22, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and CNPC's mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has increased. Due to the influence of the surrounding market, the mainstream supply price has further increased, but the strong price - pressing procurement sentiment of downstream enterprises has led to slow terminal sales. Next week, the production capacity of some shut - down plants will be significantly released, and domestic supply may increase significantly, while the finished product inventory level is expected to rise [6]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased month - on - month. Next week, due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order growth, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - week Key Points Summary - Market Review: The price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated continuously, and the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber of mainstream sales companies increased by 100 yuan/ton [6]. - Market Outlook: Supply may increase significantly next week, and the finished product inventory level is expected to rise. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may decline slightly [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: The short - term fluctuation range of the br2510 contract is expected to be between 11,600 and 12,000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.35% [10]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the given content. - Inter - period Spread: As of August 22, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 20 [17]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of August 22, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 2,490 tons, unchanged from last week [20]. Spot Market - Spot Price: As of August 21, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - Basis: As of August 21, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Raw Material Prices: As of August 21, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 584.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.5 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 830 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - Capacity Utilization and Inventory of Butadiene: As of August 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.15%, a decrease of 1.11% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 27,300 tons, an increase of 6,900 tons from last week [31]. Industry - Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber: In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons from the previous month. As of August 21, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 69.15%, an increase of 0.95% from last week [35]. - Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber: As of August 21, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 458 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber: As of August 22, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 30,610 tons, an increase of 170 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 23,200 tons, a decrease of 250 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 7,410 tons, an increase of 420 tons from last week [42]. Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of August 21, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points [45]. - Tire Export Volume: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [48]. 4. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the report