工业硅多晶硅市场周报：双硅高位徘徊震荡，震旦行情继续延续-20250822

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices decreased by 0.68%, and polysilicon prices dropped by 2.53%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend of first falling and then rising, while the polysilicon futures market oscillated at a high level [4]. - Looking ahead, in the industrial silicon market, supply is expected to increase in the southwest region due to the deepening of the wet season, but demand from the three major downstream industries remains flat overall. For polysilicon, supply is increasing while demand is weakening, and the market is likely to face further adjustments and continue to oscillate [4]. - In terms of operations, it is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates within the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short term, within the range of 46000 - 53000, with a stop - loss range of 44000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Industrial silicon futures first fell and then rose this week, while polysilicon futures oscillated at a high level. After reaching over 52000, the polysilicon price dropped again due to low market acceptance of high - priced goods [4]. - Market Outlook: - Industrial Silicon: Supply in the southwest is expected to increase as the wet season deepens, but demand from downstream industries shows different trends. Organic silicon demand is negative, while polysilicon demand is expected to increase in August but may be limited in the long term. Aluminum alloy demand remains stable [4]. - Polysilicon: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening due to factors such as weak terminal demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak market structure in the photovoltaic industry [4]. - Operation Suggestions: The main contract of industrial silicon should be mainly range - bound, and the main contract of polysilicon should oscillate in the short term, with specific ranges provided [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Price Movements: This week, both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. Industrial silicon spot prices decreased, and the basis narrowed. Polysilicon spot prices increased, and the basis strengthened [4][10][14]. - Output and Capacity Utilization: As of August 21, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 79,800 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.95%. The output and capacity utilization rate remained unchanged this week [20]. 3. Industry Situation - Cost and Price: This week, the raw materials for industrial silicon decreased, and electricity prices remained stable during the wet season, keeping the overall cost low. The price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory increased significantly [23][45]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of August 21, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 51,166 lots, a net increase of 465 lots [30]. - Downstream Industry: - Organic Silicon: Output and the operating rate decreased, and profits declined due to cost and price changes [32][37][43]. - Aluminum Alloy: The inventory increased significantly, and it is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [45][47]. - Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell: Prices remained flat, which is expected to drag down the demand for polysilicon [52][57]. - Polysilicon Industry: Costs decreased, profits and output increased, indicating that the industry is gradually improving [59][62].